EU population continues to decline and age

In its third report on demographic change in the European Union, the European Commission warns that the EU’s population will decline and age. It emphasizes, however, that this trend also presents opportunities if countries are able to respond in a timely manner.

The main challenges relate to the labor market, health care, public finances, and regional inequalities, while living longer and healthier lives also opens up new opportunities for innovation and economic growth.

“The European population is changing, and European policies must adapt to these changes. We are living longer and healthier lives than ever before, which is one of our greatest achievements,” said Commissioner Dubravka Šuica during the presentation of the report.“But demographic changes are reshaping our societies, our economies, and our labor markets, and we must act now to turn this transformation into an opportunity.”

“This report provides the data needed to help Member States prepare for the future. Demographics are no longer an isolated issue: they must be an integral part of every major policy decision. By investing in skills, care, talent, productivity, and regional cohesion, we can strengthen Europe’s competitiveness, resilience, and well-being for decades to come."

The EU currently has a population of approximately 450.6 million, but this figure is projected to decline to about 445 million by 2050 and 398.8 million by 2100. At the same time, life expectancy is rising: in 2024, it stood at 81.5 years, and by 2050, nearly one-third of the EU’s population will be 65 or older.

According to the report, this demographic shift is leading to labor shortages and increased pressure on healthcare and pension systems. There are also significant underutilized groups in the labor market, such as women, young people who are neither in school nor employed, and older workers who could remain active longer.

The Commission considers that efforts in the areas of skills, care, housing, regional development, and productivity are essential to address these consequences. Targeted labor immigration can also help reduce shortages, although reskilling people within the EU itself remains the priority.

The EU’s share of the world’s population will fall from the current 5.4% to 3.4% by 2100. China will also see a sharp decline: from 17.2% to 6.2% by the end of this century. India and the United States will remain relatively stable. Africa, meanwhile, will account for 37.6% of the world’s population.